Will Iran target Jordan by October 31?

IranJordanMilitaryGeopoliticsMiddle EastMilitary ActionsMilitary Strikes

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability October 3138%thin market

Move1d −15.5 pp1w −25.5 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 28% / ask 48%

Ends31 Oct 2026 in 29 days

Total volume: 10,119 US$ 24h volume: 50 US$ Liquidity: 10,506 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.38 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Jordan through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Amman time.

YES probability over timeOctober 31

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only