Will Iran target Kuwait by October 31?

IranKuwaitMilitaryGeopoliticsMiddle EastMilitary ActionsMilitary Strikes

Updated:12 Oct

Implied probability October 3116%

Move1d −19 pp1w −10.5 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 12% / ask 19%

Ends31 Oct 2026 in 20 days

Total volume: 24,098 US$ 24h volume: 440 US$ Liquidity: 10,590 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.155 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Kuwait through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST).

YES probability over timeOctober 31

Show table

Outcomes

October 15thinly traded1d −7.5 pp1w −0.5 ppVolume: 506 US$
13%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only