Will Iran target Oman by November 30?

IranOmanMilitaryGeopoliticsMiddle EastMilitary ActionsMilitary Strikes

Updated:12 Oct

Implied probability November 3017%thin market

Move1d −1.5 pp1w −5.5 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 7% / ask 26%

Ends30 Nov 2026 in 50 days

Total volume: 45,018 US$ 24h volume: 20 US$ Liquidity: 10,401 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.165 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Oman through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Gulf Standard Time (GST).

YES probability over timeNovember 30

Show table

Outcomes

October 31thinly traded1d −1.1 pp1w −1.5 ppVolume: 587 US$
3.7%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only