Will Iran target Syria by October 31?

IranSyriaMilitaryGeopoliticsMiddle EastMilitary ActionsMilitary Strikes

Updated:12 Oct

Implied probability October 313.1%

Move1d −0.6 pp1w −1.4 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 1.8% / ask 4.4%

Ends31 Oct 2026 in 20 days

Total volume: 44,979 US$ 24h volume: 5 US$ Liquidity: 10,653 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.031 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Syria through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Damascus time.

YES probability over timeOctober 31

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Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only