Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by November 30?

IranMilitaryGeopoliticsMiddle EastMilitary ActionsMilitary StrikesUnited Arab Emirates

Updated:12 Oct

Implied probability November 3050%thin market

Move1d −6.5 pp1w −12 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 47% / ask 53%

Ends30 Nov 2026 in 50 days

Total volume: 16,896 US$ 24h volume: 362 US$ Liquidity: 33,962 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.5 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets the United Arab Emirates through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Gulf Standard Time (GST).

YES probability over timeNovember 30

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Outcomes

November 30thinly traded1d −6.5 pp1w −12 ppVolume: 465 US$
50%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only