IranGeopoliticsPoliticsMiddle EastNuclear
Total volume: 600,965 US$ 24h volume: 4,308 US$ Liquidity: 25,760 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.117 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the…
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? — YES probability from 22% on 5 Nov 2025 to 12% on 1 Oct 2026
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only