Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by December 31?

IranWorldPoliticsGeopolitics

Updated:12 Oct

Implied probability December 314%thin market

Move1d −0.2 pp1w −0.8 pp1m −0.3 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 2.4% / ask 5.7%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 81 days

Total volume: 118,049 US$ 24h volume: 107 US$ Liquidity: 25,648 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.04 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

YES probability over timeDecember 31

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Outcomes

December 31thinly traded1d −0.2 pp1w −0.8 ppVolume: 869 US$
4%
October 31thinly traded1d −1 pp1w −2.2 ppVolume: 267 US$
0.2%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only