Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by December 31?

IranWorldPoliticsGeopolitics

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability December 314.7%thin market

Move1d +0.5 pp1m −1.8 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 3.3% / ask 6.1%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 91 days

Total volume: 117,848 US$ 24h volume: 0 US$ Liquidity: 5,549 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.047 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

YES probability over timeDecember 31

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Outcomes

December 311d +0.5 ppVolume: 816 US$
4.7%
October 311w −0.7 ppVolume: 119 US$
2.1%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only