Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by December 31?

PoliticsIsraelLebanonTrumpHezbollahGeopoliticsIran

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability December 3110%

Move1d +1.5 pp1w −1.5 pp1m −2.5 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 7% / ask 13%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 91 days

Total volume: 54,203 US$ 24h volume: 0 US$ Liquidity: 1,237 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.1 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of Lebanon Joseph Aoun talks with Benjamin Netanyahu between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

YES probability over timeDecember 31

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by December 31?

PoliticsIsraelLebanonTrumpHezbollahGeopoliticsIran

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability December 3110%

Move1d +1.5 pp1w −1.5 pp1m −2.5 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 7% / ask 13%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 91 days

Total volume: 54,203 US$ 24h volume: 0 US$ Liquidity: 1,237 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.1 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of Lebanon Joseph Aoun talks with Benjamin Netanyahu between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

YES probability over timeDecember 31

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeDecember 31MonthAll

Outcomes

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeDecember 31MonthAll

Outcomes

YES probability over timeDecember 31

YES probability over timeDecember 31