Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

shahReza PahlaviIran RegimeIranWorldMiddle EastIsraelGeopolitics

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability December 314.3%

Move1d −0.2 pp1w +0.5 pp1m −0.2 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 4.3% / ask 4.4%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 91 days

Total volume: 22.2M US$ 24h volume: 2,264 US$ Liquidity: 113,638 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.043 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes".

YES probability over timeDecember 31

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

shahReza PahlaviIran RegimeIranWorldMiddle EastIsraelGeopolitics

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability December 314.3%

Move1d −0.2 pp1w +0.5 pp1m −0.2 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 4.3% / ask 4.4%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 91 days

Total volume: 22.2M US$ 24h volume: 2,264 US$ Liquidity: 113,638 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.043 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes".

YES probability over timeDecember 31

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeDecember 31MonthAll

Outcomes

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeDecember 31MonthAll

Outcomes

YES probability over timeDecember 31

YES probability over timeDecember 31