Will 10+ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?

OilIranTrumpHormuzGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability 10+24%thin market

Move1d −12 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 9% / ask 39%

Ends31 Oct 2026 in 30 days

Total volume: 1,046 US$ 24h volume: 769 US$ Liquidity: 22,648 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.24 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026.

YES probability over time10+

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Outcomes

10+1d −12 ppVolume: 7 US$
24%
20+1d −14 ppVolume: 0 US$
19%
30+1d −8 ppVolume: 0 US$
14%
40+1d −6 ppVolume: 885 US$
2%
50+1d −4.5 ppVolume: 154 US$
1.5%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only