Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

IranTrumpWorldIsraelKhameneiPoliticsGeopoliticsIran Regime

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability15%thin market

Move—

Bid/ask spreadbid 13% / ask 16%

Ends30 Jun 2027 in 272 days

Total volume: 491 US$ 24h volume: 491 US$ Liquidity: 46,353 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.145 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

YES probability over time

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Outcomes

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?Volume: 491 US$
15%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only