Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?

IranKhameneiPoliticsGeopoliticsIran Regime

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability1.1%

Move1d −0.1 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 1% / ask 1.1%

Ends31 Oct 2026 in 30 days

Total volume: 5,632 US$ 24h volume: 773 US$ Liquidity: 53,439 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.011 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

YES probability over time

Only one stored day for this outcome — not enough to chart.

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only