Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?

IranTrumpWorldIsraelKhameneiPoliticsGeopoliticsIran Regime

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability21%

Move—

Bid/ask spreadbid 20% / ask 21%

Ends31 Dec 2027 in 456 days

Total volume: 3,169 US$ 24h volume: 3,235 US$ Liquidity: 51,316 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.205 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

YES probability over time

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Outcomes

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?Volume: 3,169 US$
21%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only