Military StrikesPoliticsGeopoliticsWorldMiddle EastIsraelIranTrump
Total volume: 70.9M US$ 24h volume: 448,315 US$ Liquidity: 948,578 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.155 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? — YES probability from 14% on 5 Nov 2025 to 15% on 1 Oct 2026
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only