US-IranIsraelIranGeopoliticsPoliticsMiddle EastWorldTrump Presidency
Total volume: 7.8M US$ 24h volume: 210 US$ Liquidity: 69,409 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.028 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional…
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31? — YES probability from 11% on 12 Jan 2026 to 2.6% on 1 Oct 2026
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only