Middle EastPoliticsGeopoliticsIranWorldU.S. x IranIran Regime
Total volume: 160,279 US$ 24h volume: 435 US$ Liquidity: 15,256 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.03 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? — YES probability from 26% on 1 Mar 2026 to 3.5% on 1 Oct 2026
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only