Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30?

OilSPRIranTrumpcrudeEconomypetroleum

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability 280M76%thin market

Move1d +16 pp1w 0 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 70% / ask 82%

Ends11 Nov 2026 in 41 days

Total volume: 10,599 US$ 24h volume: 1,592 US$ Liquidity: 4,683 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.76 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value after market creation for any week ending on or before October 30, 2026.

YES probability over time280M

Outcomes

250M1w −1.2 ppVolume: 208 US$
3.8%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only