Prediction market
The odds prediction-market traders put on Iran questions — ceasefire, Hormuz, a deal, leadership
Updated:
A YES price is what traders pay for a dollar if it happens: a market's opinion, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth. The market is closed to users in Iran; Gheymatban only reads and links to no trade.
Most-traded questions today
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16%
1d +1 pp1w +2 pp1m −1 pp
since 3 Sept
24h volume: 452,280 US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
20%
1d −24.5 pp
since 1 Oct
24h volume: 228,280 US$ Ends: 31 Oct 2026 (in 30 days)
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15?
8.5%
1d −7 pp1w −11 pp
Term structure
Term structure: October 15 8.5%, October 31 24%, November 30 38%, December 31 54%, March 31 73%
24h volume: 191,042 US$ Ends: 15 Oct 2026 (in 14 days)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31?
2.8%
1d −0.9 pp1w −0.6 pp1m +0.3 pp
Term structure
Term structure: October 31 2.8%, November 30 8%, December 31 13%
24h volume: 92,840 US$ Ends: 31 Oct 2026 (in 30 days)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
2.4%
1d −1 pp1w −5.1 pp1m −8.1 pp
since 3 Sept
24h volume: 91,161 US$ Ends: 31 Oct 2026 (in 30 days)
Crude Oil all time high by December 31?
9.5%
1d −1 pp1w −2 pp1m −2 pp
since 3 Sept
24h volume: 76,542 US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
6.5%
1d 0 pp1w 0 pp1m 0 pp
since 3 Sept
24h volume: 74,383 US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
82%
1d +2.5 pp1w −3 pp1m +8.5 pp
Term structure
Term structure: October 31 82%, November 30 69%, December 31 62%
24h volume: 54,544 US$ Ends: 31 Oct 2026 (in 30 days)
Biggest moves
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?: the odds went from 53% to 27%
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?53% → 27%−26 ppVolume: 120,918 US$
- Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place USA?30% → 5.5%−24 ppVolume: 33,744 US$
- Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?46% → 24%−22 ppVolume: 124,105 US$
- USD x Iranian rials End of December?36% → 17%−19 ppVolume: 21,033 US$
- Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?53% → 36%−17 ppVolume: 290,809 US$
Measured against Gheymatban's stored history: only questions whose daily history we keep and that traded above $10,000 — the table's weekly column can surface a question this list does not
Themes
Dollar & rial
Ceasefire & war
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?2 open of 11 outcomes Volume: 75.2M US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)6.5%
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Volume: 70.9M US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)16%
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31?5 open of 23 outcomes Volume: 34.7M US$ Ends: 31 Mar 2027 (in 181 days)73%
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?3 open of 24 outcomes Volume: 32.5M US$ Ends: 31 Oct 2026 (in 30 days)82%
Hormuz & oil
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Awaiting resultVolume: 12.3M US$ Ends: 30 Sept 2026
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?2 open of 6 outcomes Volume: 3.5M US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)19%
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by October 31?1 open of 9 outcomes Volume: 2.8M US$ Ends: 31 Oct 2026 (in 30 days)18%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Volume: 1.6M US$ Ends: 31 Oct 2026 (in 30 days)2.4%
Talks & nuclear deal
- Iran Nuke before 2027?Volume: 1.3M US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)3.9%
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Volume: 600,416 US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)12%
- UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?Volume: 279,135 US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)14%
- Iran nuclear test before 2027?Volume: 266,279 US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)3.1%
Leadership & regime
- Iran leader end of 2026?Mojtaba Khamenei121 open of 123 outcomes Volume: 39.7M US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)88%
- Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?4 open of 14 outcomes Volume: 26.6M US$ Ends: 30 Jun 2027 (in 272 days)23%
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Volume: 26.6M US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)6.5%
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?1 open of 7 outcomes Volume: 22.2M US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)4.3%
Region
- Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by December 31?3 open of 15 outcomes Volume: 7.3M US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)20%
- Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?1 open of 4 outcomes Volume: 872,386 US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)16%
- Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?Volume: 258,319 US$ Ends: 31 Oct 2026 (in 30 days)20%
Other
- European military action against Iran by December 31?2 open of 4 outcomes Volume: 327,960 US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)6.5%
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by December 31?3–6% thin market2 open of 5 outcomes Volume: 117,848 US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)
- Putin meets with Iranian officials by December 31?Volume: 18,412 US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)96.2%
- Trump and Pezeshkian meet by December 31?4–12% thin marketVolume: 120 US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)
Regional (no direct Iran mention)
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?3 open of 12 outcomes Volume: 16M US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)18%
- How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?412 open of 16 outcomes Volume: 7.6M US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)78%
- Crude Oil all time high by December 31?1 open of 4 outcomes Volume: 4.6M US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)9.5%
- Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by November 30?4 open of 7 outcomes Volume: 2.2M US$ Ends: 30 Nov 2026 (in 60 days)88%
Every open question14 of 135
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Awaiting resultVolume: 12.3M US$ Ends: 30 Sept 2026
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?2 open of 6 outcomes Volume: 3.5M US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)19%
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by October 31?1 open of 9 outcomes Volume: 2.8M US$ Ends: 31 Oct 2026 (in 30 days)18%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Volume: 1.6M US$ Ends: 31 Oct 2026 (in 30 days)2.4%
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?5 open of 9 outcomes Volume: 1.5M US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)42%
- 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?October 312 open of 7 outcomes Volume: 891,645 US$ Ends: 31 Oct 2026 (in 30 days)37%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Volume: 544,847 US$ Ends: 30 Nov 2026 (in 60 days)9.5%
- Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?Volume: 110,160 US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)2.8%
- Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of September?0-5Awaiting result7 outcomes Volume: 101,562 US$ Ends: 30 Sept 2026
- Will 10+ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30?Awaiting result5 outcomes Volume: 44,326 US$ Ends: 30 Sept 2026
- How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 28?25-296 outcomes Volume: 29,253 US$ Ends: 4 Oct 2026 (in 3 days)47%
- How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 5?25-296 outcomes Volume: 4,698 US$ Ends: 11 Oct 2026 (in 10 days)18%
- Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?0-57 outcomes Volume: 3,041 US$ Ends: 31 Oct 2026 (in 30 days)61%
- Will 10+ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?11–49% thin market5 outcomes Volume: 1,046 US$ Ends: 31 Oct 2026 (in 30 days)
Latest resolutions
Questions that have settled — what the market finally said.
- Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026?Resolved NoThe market said 0.9% before the outcomeSettled 2 Oct 2026
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?Resolved NoThe market said 0.1% before the outcomeSettled 2 Oct 2026
- Will Iran target Egypt by September 30, 2026?Resolved NoThe market said 1.1% before the outcomeSettled 1 Oct 2026
- Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by September 30, 2026?Resolved NoThe market said 4.7% before the outcomeSettled 1 Oct 2026
- Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by September 30?Resolved NoThe market said 0.4% before the outcomeSettled 1 Oct 2026
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 23, 2026?Resolved NoThe market said 18% before the outcomeSettled 1 Oct 2026
- Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by September 30?Resolved NoThe market said 2.4% before the outcomeSettled 1 Oct 2026
- Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026?Resolved NoThe market said 1.5% before the outcomeSettled 1 Oct 2026
- Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by September 30?Resolved NoThe market said 4.5% before the outcomeSettled 1 Oct 2026
- Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by September 20?Resolved NoThe market said 1.4% before the outcomeSettled 1 Oct 2026
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Resolved NoThe market said 2.4% before the outcomeSettled 1 Oct 2026
- Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?Resolved NoThe market said 0.1% before the outcomeSettled 1 Oct 2026
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only