Prediction market
The odds prediction-market traders put on Iran questions — ceasefire, Hormuz, a deal, leadership
Updated:
A YES price is what traders pay for a dollar if it happens: a market's opinion, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth. The market is closed to users in Iran; Gheymatban only reads and links to no trade.
Most-traded questions today
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16%
1d +1 pp1w +2 pp1m −1 pp
since 3 Sept
24h volume: 188,882 US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
19%
1d −25.5 pp
since 1 Oct
24h volume: 187,446 US$ Ends: 31 Oct 2026 (in 30 days)
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15?
8.5%
1d −7 pp1w −11 pp
Term structure
Term structure: October 15 8.5%, October 31 23%, November 30 37%, December 31 54%, March 31 72%
24h volume: 83,950 US$ Ends: 15 Oct 2026 (in 14 days)
Iran leadership change by December 31?
12%
1d −1 pp1w −3 pp1m −4 pp
Term structure
Term structure: October 31 2.4%, November 30 5.5%, December 31 12%, June 30, 2027 23%
24h volume: 83,526 US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
6.5%
1d 0 pp1w 0 pp1m 0 pp
since 3 Sept
24h volume: 77,564 US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)
US-Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
61%
1d +5 pp1w +4 pp
Term structure
Term structure: October 7 90%, October 15 79%, October 31 61%, November 15 47%, November 30 39%, December 31 32%
24h volume: 69,367 US$ Ends: 31 Oct 2026 (in 30 days)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31?
2.6%
1d −1 pp1w −0.7 pp1m +0.2 pp
Term structure
Term structure: October 31 2.6%, November 30 7.5%, December 31 14%
24h volume: 65,176 US$ Ends: 31 Oct 2026 (in 30 days)
Crude Oil all time high by December 31?
11%
1d 0 pp1w −1 pp1m −1 pp
since 3 Sept
24h volume: 64,024 US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)
Biggest moves
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?: the odds went from 53% to 22%
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?53% → 22%−31 ppVolume: 122,183 US$
- Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place USA?30% → 5.5%−24 ppVolume: 33,744 US$
- Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?46% → 24%−22 ppVolume: 124,152 US$
- Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?53% → 34%−19 ppVolume: 296,979 US$
- USD x Iranian rials End of December?36% → 17%−19 ppVolume: 21,033 US$
Measured against Gheymatban's stored history: only questions whose daily history we keep and that traded above $10,000 — the table's weekly column can surface a question this list does not
Themes
Dollar & rial
Ceasefire & war
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?2 open of 11 outcomes Volume: 75.2M US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)6.5%
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Volume: 71M US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)16%
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31?5 open of 23 outcomes Volume: 34.8M US$ Ends: 31 Mar 2027 (in 181 days)72%
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?3 open of 24 outcomes Volume: 32.5M US$ Ends: 31 Oct 2026 (in 30 days)80%
Hormuz & oil
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Awaiting resultVolume: 12.3M US$ Ends: 30 Sept 2026
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?2 open of 6 outcomes Volume: 3.5M US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)18%
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by October 31?1 open of 9 outcomes Volume: 2.8M US$ Ends: 31 Oct 2026 (in 30 days)18%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Volume: 1.6M US$ Ends: 31 Oct 2026 (in 30 days)2.2%
Talks & nuclear deal
- Iran Nuke before 2027?Volume: 1.3M US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)3.9%
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Volume: 600,965 US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)12%
- UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?Volume: 279,135 US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)14%
- Iran nuclear test before 2027?Volume: 266,279 US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)3.1%
Leadership & regime
- Iran leader end of 2026?Mojtaba Khamenei121 open of 123 outcomes Volume: 39.7M US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 90 days)88%
- Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?4 open of 14 outcomes Volume: 26.7M US$ Ends: 30 Jun 2027 (in 272 days)23%
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Volume: 26.6M US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)6.5%
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?1 open of 7 outcomes Volume: 22.2M US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)4.3%
Region
- Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by December 31?3 open of 15 outcomes Volume: 7.3M US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)20%
- Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?1 open of 4 outcomes Volume: 872,386 US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)16%
- Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?Volume: 267,754 US$ Ends: 31 Oct 2026 (in 30 days)19%
Other
- European military action against Iran by December 31?2 open of 4 outcomes Volume: 328,063 US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)6.5%
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by December 31?3–6% thin market2 open of 5 outcomes Volume: 117,848 US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)
- Putin meets with Iranian officials by December 31?Volume: 18,412 US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)96.2%
- Trump and Pezeshkian meet by December 31?4–12% thin marketVolume: 120 US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)
Regional (no direct Iran mention)
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?3 open of 12 outcomes Volume: 16M US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)18%
- How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?412 open of 16 outcomes Volume: 7.6M US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)78%
- Crude Oil all time high by December 31?1 open of 4 outcomes Volume: 4.6M US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)11%
- Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by November 30?4 open of 7 outcomes Volume: 2.2M US$ Ends: 30 Nov 2026 (in 60 days)85%
Every open question3 of 135
- Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by December 31?3 open of 15 outcomes Volume: 7.3M US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)20%
- Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?1 open of 4 outcomes Volume: 872,386 US$ Ends: 31 Dec 2026 (in 91 days)16%
- Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?Volume: 267,754 US$ Ends: 31 Oct 2026 (in 30 days)19%
Latest resolutions
Questions that have settled — what the market finally said.
- US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by September 30?Resolved NoThe market said 0.6% before the outcomeSettled 2 Oct 2026
- Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in August?Resolved NoThe market said 0.1% before the outcomeSettled 2 Oct 2026
- Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 23, 2026?Resolved YesThe market said 42% before the outcomeSettled 2 Oct 2026
- Will Iran target Syria by September 30, 2026?Resolved NoThe market said 0.8% before the outcomeSettled 2 Oct 2026
- Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026?Resolved NoThe market said 0.9% before the outcomeSettled 2 Oct 2026
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?Resolved NoThe market said 0.1% before the outcomeSettled 2 Oct 2026
- Will Iran target Egypt by September 30, 2026?Resolved NoThe market said 1.1% before the outcomeSettled 1 Oct 2026
- Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by September 30, 2026?Resolved NoThe market said 4.7% before the outcomeSettled 1 Oct 2026
- Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by September 30?Resolved NoThe market said 0.4% before the outcomeSettled 1 Oct 2026
- Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 23, 2026?Resolved NoThe market said 18% before the outcomeSettled 1 Oct 2026
- Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by September 30?Resolved NoThe market said 2.4% before the outcomeSettled 1 Oct 2026
- Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026?Resolved NoThe market said 1.5% before the outcomeSettled 1 Oct 2026
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only